New report: Kentucky is warming at less than half the national rate

A new climate assessment for Kentucky shows that there is no “climate crisis” in the Bluegrass State.

Kentucky has warmed by just 0.6°F since 1900, which is less than half the national average. The number of extremely hot days has declined over that period, as well, according to a new state-by-state climate assessment from The Heartland Institute.

The Kentucky State Climate Summary, part of Heartland’s ClimateAtAGlance.com project, compiles data going back more than a century, including records from NOAA, NASA, and the USDA. The study serves as an easy-to-verify counterpoint to the climate-crisis coverage Kentucky regularly receives.

Some of the findings of the report are below.

• Fewer “very hot” days, not more: Days hitting 100°F or higher have declined since the early twentieth century, even as the statewide average has ticked up slightly. Today’s average temperatures resemble those of the 1920s and 1940s. Reporters and residents of Kentucky should question claims of “record heat” given this data.
• Warming is from milder winters, not hotter summers. The modest rise in Kentucky’s average temperature is driven mainly by fewer freezing nights and a drop in the number of days at or below 32°F — not by more scorching summer days. Fewer freezing nights means fewer cold-related deaths, since cold kills far more Kentuckians each year than extreme heat does.
• Louisville and Lexington may be warming their own thermometers. Research shows urbanization may account for up to 65 percent of warming in cities and suburbs. Louisville’s population has grown by approximately 314,000 since the 1980s, and Lexington recently expanded its Urban Service Boundary for the first time since 1996. As these cities grow, so does the Urban Heat Island effect — meaning much of Kentucky’s measured warming may reflect development, not climate change.
• Tornadoes and hail aren’t trending up. NWS Storm Prediction Center data show no trend in total tornado occurrence or severity since the advent of Doppler radar, nor in the number of the most destructive EF2+ tornadoes. Severe hail of one inch or larger also shows no increasing trend. This directly contradicts claims that climate change is making Kentucky’s severe weather seasons more dangerous.
• The flooding story has important context. The worst flood in Kentucky history was the Great Flood of 1937, when the Ohio River crested at more than 52 feet and inundated most of downtown Louisville. USGS river gauge data show the next worst flood years were 1884, 1945, 1964, and 1913 — all occurring when greenhouse gas emissions were far lower than today. There is no identifiable upward trend in the data.
• Agriculture is booming. Kentucky’s top crops tell a remarkable story of growth. Corn yields have skyrocketed 620 percent since 1900, with total production up 165 percent. Soybean production has surged more than 8,000 percent since 1924, with yields up 342 percent. Even tobacco — a crop with fewer planted acres due to public health policy — has seen yields climb 148 percent, thanks to improved growing conditions, CO₂ fertilization, and modern farming technology.

  “Beautiful old Kentucky is not suffering from the effects of climate change, if anything the weather is becoming milder. Extreme heat is way less common than it was in the past, and drought is also less frequent. If you're a bourbon fan (as I am) you'll be glad to hear that corn yields and production are going strong, and even though tobacco is planted less than it used to be, those yields have continued to improve as well”

  Linnea Lueken

  Senior Fellow, Energy and Environment

  The Heartland Institute

  llueken@heartland.org

  The Kentucky State Climate Summary is available free at:

  https://climateataglance.com/kentucky-state-climate-summary/

  The Heartland Institute is one of the world’s leading free-market think tanks. Founded in 1984 and now based in Schaumburg, Illinois, Heartland’s mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. The Economist magazine has called Heartland “the world’s most prominent think tank supporting skepticism about man-made climate change."

• To speak to the author of this report or other climate and environment experts at The Heartland Institute, contact VP and Director of Communications Jim Lakely at media@heartland.org or call/text 312-731-9364.