Zach Dembo speaks to constituents at a campaign fundraiser on Sept. 11, 2026, in Paint Lick, Kentucky. (Photo by Arden Barnes for KY Lantern)
An internal poll from Democrat Zach Dembo’s campaign shows the candidate with a five-point lead over Republican Ralph Alvarado in Kentucky’s central congressional district.
Pollster GQR, which tends to favor Democratic candidates, found in a survey of 401 likely voters, 42% backed Dembo, 37% backed Alvarado and 11% supported third-party or independent candidates. The survey says 9% of the voters were undecided. The poll, which had a margin of error of 4.9%, surveyed voters between Sept. 25 and 30.
In a statement to the Kentucky Lantern, Dembo said the poll shows that “Central Kentucky families are fed up with a system they know is rigged against them.
“We’ve got more work to do with a month left until the election — and it’s all gas, no breaks.”
The poll comes on the heels of an independent election predictor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball out of the University of Virginia, moving the outcome of the race in the 6th Congressional district toward Dembo, calling it a “leans Republican” district. The predictor had previously rated the race as safe for the GOP.
“This one is real, as noted by race raters who moved this race in Dembo’s direction,” GQR’s conclusion said. “A combination of a toxic environment for the ruling party, a flawed Republican nominee and an appealing, centrist Democratic candidate has pushed Dembo into a lead.”
The poll is one data point, but it follows a national trend of a midterm election that favors some Democrats in red states. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said “there are a variety of reasons why internal polls tend to look better for the campaign that paid for them other than because of bias in the data.”
Voss said respondents may pick up on which candidate’s poll they are answering and respondents may also face “desirability effects” where they pick the answer that is more desirable to the interviewer.
The GQR poll findings said that while 70% of voters know of Alvarado, his favorability is low, with 22% having a favorable opinion. On the other hand, 34% had an unfavorable opinion.
Plus, the favorability of President Donald Trump, who endorsed Alvarado in the primary, has lowered in the district. During the last presidential election in 2024, Trump carried the 6th Congressional District by 15 points. Of those surveyed in the poll, 57% had an unfavorable opinion and 39% a favorable opinion. Trump is slated to campaign in other states ahead of the November midterm elections as his approval ratings fall nationwide.
Dembo was recognized by 63% of those surveyed with a 30% favorable opinion and an 18% unfavorable opinion.. The state’s top Democrat, Gov. Andy Beshear, who has campaigned with Dembo, has a 62% favorable rating against 29% unfavorable. In the 2023 gubernatorial race, Beshear won the district by 19 points.
As for the overall numbers, the findings said that independent Jay Bowman and the Kentucky Party’s Pete Lynch “account for 11 percent of the vote share and provide a destination for the growing number of disgruntled Republicans.” With the third-party and independent vote and undecided voters allocated, Dembo leads 46% to 43%.
Public independent polling has been scarce in the race. An August poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is backing Dembo, had the race tied at 47% between Dembo and Alvarado.
Another race watcher, the Cook Political Report, moved the race from solid Republican to likely Republican in July.
Voss, the political science professor, also said campaigns in general get more internal polling than what is publicly available and are “cherry-picking what to show.” Journalists may get one poll while fundraising emails reference another.
“It’s not a bias in the data. It’s a bias in the release of the data,” Voss said.
Tres Watson, a former spokesperson for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said that campaigns mainly release polls for fundraising as “people want to donate to the winner.” Hearing the top-line results of the poll, he didn’t feel like it matched what he sees on the ground in Central Kentucky and added the seat has been in Republican hands since 2012.
Kentucky is also one of the hardest states to poll in, Watson said. People don’t answer the phone or may lie to pollsters.
“There’s distrust of the polling apparatus, distrust of pollsters, distrust of national politicians — regardless of party,” he said.
Polls can be useful to campaigns for checking trends among voters and not necessarily forecasting the outcome of an election.
Hearing that the latest poll had 11% backing an independent or third-party candidate, Watson said that was a “ridiculous number,” adding that “there is a 0% chance that independent and third party candidates will get 11%.”
The central Kentucky House seat is open this fall as Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr is running for U.S. Senate.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
This is a developing story.
Courtesy of Kentucky Lantern
